The disclosure and our analysis
Evidence dates
Evidence: Exelon Corporation third quarter 2026 earnings conference call presentation, filed as Exhibit 99.2 to a Form 8-K on October 30, 2026 (slide 15). Read October 30, 2026. Figures are Exelon projections as of that date.
What Exelon disclosed
1. **High probability load:** under the heading Exelon's Projected Data Center Growth, the slide shows about 11 GW of high probability load: ComEd about 9 GW and MidAtlantic about 2 GW. [Source 1]
2. **Definition:** Exelon describes that tier as load in advanced phases of design or backed by FERC approved transmission security agreements (TSAs). A note on the tier says about 45% is with TSAs, backed by about $1.2 billion in collateral. On the slide, that note applies to the 11 GW tier as a whole; it does not split the TSA share between ComEd and MidAtlantic. [Source 1]
3. **Future pipeline:** the slide shows a future pipeline of about 23 GW: ComEd about 14 GW and MidAtlantic about 9 GW, described as within current or future cluster studies with 2026 and 2027 conclusions. [Source 1]
4. **PJM forecast:** Exelon says its Large Load Adjustments submitted to PJM in 2025 and 2026 were fully approved, and that its 2027 submission reflects enhanced commitment criteria and aligns with about 11 GW of high probability load. [Source 1]
5. **History:** a chart of actual data center load in northern Illinois shows growth at about 28% CAGR from 2022 to 2026, measured year to date through September, against about 9% before that. The chart does not print the megawatt values. [Source 1]
6. **Framework:** Exelon says FERC has endorsed its TSA framework as a model for protecting customers, improving queue certainty and enabling large load growth. [Source 1]
How to read the megawatts
These are Exelon projections of data center load on its utility systems. They are not critical IT capacity, and the slide does not say what share of the load is under construction, when it would energize, or which sites it covers. The 11 GW tier and the 23 GW pipeline are separate categories and should not be added together as a single forecast. ComEd serves northern Illinois, including the Chicago area. The slide does not say which states the 2 GW and 9 GW MidAtlantic figures fall in.
Status
On our status vocabulary, as of October 30, 2026: these are forecasts. About 45% of the high probability tier is backed by TSAs, which are interconnection security agreements, not leases or energization. The future pipeline is still in cluster studies. Nothing here establishes construction, energization or capacity Available to new customers.
Buyer analysis
This is our analysis, not Exelon's. The split between the two tiers is the useful part. Load backed by a TSA has collateral behind it; load in a cluster study does not yet have a confirmed path. For buyers evaluating new capacity in the Chicago market, a provider that can show a signed ComEd TSA, its collateral position and its study results is in a different place from one that is still waiting for a 2026 or 2027 cluster study to conclude.
Scale also matters. Even the high probability ComEd figure of about 9 GW is many times the northern Illinois data center load shown on Exelon's own historical chart. That gap implies years of transmission and generation work, and it is a reason to press providers for energization dates in writing rather than relying on a utility headline.
We have assigned this story to our Chicago market because ComEd's service area covers it. The slide does not name individual projects.
