The disclosure and our analysis
Evidence dates
Evidence: Stafford County Board of Supervisors agenda item report for the October 7, 2026 public hearing; proposed Ordinance O26-16; the applicant's impact statement dated September 14, 2026; Potomac Local and Fredericksburg Free Press reports of October 8, 2026. County documents read October 14, 2026.
What was approved
Potomac Local reports that the board approved Ordinance O26-16, the rezoning, and Resolution R26-128, the substation conditional use permit, each by 4-3. Supervisors Diggs, Evans, Guy and Allen voted yes. Vanuch, English and Yeung voted no. A motion to delay the vote failed 5-2. [Source 4] The Fredericksburg Free Press reports the same 4-3 outcome. [Source 5] We did not find adopted minutes on the county portal as of October 14.
The application, RC24155981 by Falmouth Tech LLC, rezones eight parcels totaling about 120.88 acres from agricultural, rural residential and office zoning to M-2 Heavy Industrial. It allows up to 590,000 square feet of data center and accessory uses. The plan shows two data center buildings up to two stories, an equipment yard for backup generators, and an electric substation. [Source 1] [Source 2] The applicant's principals are associated with Tradition Companies LLC. [Source 3]
County staff said the use is not consistent with the future land use plan, which designates the site for mixed commercial and residential use, but recommended approval on balance. The Planning Commission recommended approval 4-3 on August 26, 2026. [Source 1]
Power
The applicant says that, based on discussions with Dominion Energy, the project is expected to need about 122 MW of electrical service at full build-out. A single on site substation of about seven acres, and no more than eight, would serve it. The substation would be owned and operated by Dominion and not dedicated to any single customer. An existing transmission corridor runs less than half a mile from the site. The applicant says it has asked Dominion for more information on transmission facilities and voltage. [Source 3]
The 122 MW figure is an electrical service estimate by the applicant. It is not critical IT load, not energized capacity and not a utility commitment.
Water, sound and setbacks
The proffers make reuse water the only source for industrial cooling and bar potable water for that use, with air based cooling as the fallback. [Source 1] The applicant says the design uses evaporative cooling with reuse water for about 4% of the year. [Source 3] The applicant's sound study projects no more than 48 dBA at the closest property line and 44 dBA at the closest home, against a 55 dBA county limit. [Source 1]
The applicant requested modifications where it does not meet county setback and buffer standards, and proffered at least 45 acres of tree preservation and a 1,350 foot primary building setback from one neighboring parcel. [Source 1]
Economics
The applicant's fiscal analysis by Mangum Economics, dated June 4, 2026, projects gross annual tax revenue of $15.5 million in 2029, when the first building is expected to operate, settling at $13.5 million a year, and 64 operating jobs. These are the applicant's projections. [Source 3]
Buyer analysis
This is our analysis.
**Entitled land, not capacity.** The vote zones the site and permits the substation. Power delivery depends on Dominion's transmission plan, which the applicant says is not yet defined. Buyers looking at Northern Virginia overflow sites should treat 2029 as the applicant's expectation, not a delivery date.
**A smaller campus by current standards.** About 122 MW of electrical service across 590,000 square feet is modest next to gigawatt campus plans. It may suit enterprise or regional hyperscale needs south of Prince William County. No end user or operator is named.
**Local friction is real.** The 4-3 votes, setback modifications and land use inconsistency signal that later approvals may draw scrutiny.
